high seas forecast south pacific issued: 04/30/2023 05:02:51 pm hst. 34.6 N / -76.2 . Crime against visiting surfers is common and becoming increasingly so, especially in the north. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. W wind 10 ktbacking to SW. Wind waves 3 ft. Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. MON NIGHT N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. As for swell, this low has stayed the course with last week's weather models looking nearly identical to today's, keeping the low meandering about SoCal for a few days, kicking up wind swell into the mix (model by NOAA MAG): But there has been some improvement in the forecast as the ground swell portion of the approaching swell will outdo wind swell, with wind swell being about 30-40% in the mix (ground swell 60-70%). Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. A broad gale started building over and just east of the Kuril Islands and North Japan on Sun PM (2/20) generating a fetch of 45 kt west winds with seas building from 27 ft at 39.75N 150E aimed east. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting. CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La Nina territory for the moment. Updated! Wind waves 2 ft or less. You can also get the latest temperature, weather and wind observations from actual weather stations under the live weather section. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Global-Pacific region. Still plenty of swell out there though. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast TONIGHT The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based. WED TUE NIGHT The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). The 28 deg isotherm line was stalled at 159W today. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. . Not much of a change compared to the last few days in the forecast, maybe even a notch smaller. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds to deal with. Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks, with NW dropping to nil. waves 3 to 4 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. On Sunday (4/30) the jetstream was split over the South Pacific with most energy tracking east over the 55S latitude line under New Zealand falling to 64S over the Southeast Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. Horse-Drawn Carriage Tours. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 95W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 95W while rapidly fading in coverage. This is dragging colder air along with it, but upper atmospheric temps (850 hPa, a mile up) should be well above the freezing mark, so surface temps will not dive too low, and nightly cloud cover should provide enough blanket to keep low temps in the 50s at the coast. E wind 5 ktveering to SW. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Help South to southwest fetch is to be building in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 44.25S 137.25W aimed northeast. THU The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. TONIGHT Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts over a large area aimed east with seas fading from 36 ft at 39N 167.25E aimed east. That Wed-PM/Thu-AM rainband looks the heaviest with rain lasting a good part of the day Thursday, clearing Friday. . Swell NW 24. This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning. After that two weak gales are forecast in the Central Gulf Sun-Tues (3/1) producing 26 and 29 ft seas respectively targeting from Pt Conception northward. 40. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino through the day and evening. Tropical Update LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. Friday the 5th into Saturday the 6th remains on track to see decent sized southern hemi ground swell from this system that has stayed the course for more than a week on the models, peaking off Antarctica yesterday as it traveled north on an ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): Size is coming in at chest high for most south facing breaks and head high at times at standouts by Saturday the 6th (chest max Friday the 5th with rare pluses), angled from 210 with periods 16-18 seconds. No tropical systems of interest are forecast. WED Today: Sunny with isolated showers. The other swell will be a selective but fun WNW groundswell for winter spots. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors. The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . 00:37. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. A gale developed in the Southwestern Pacific with swell from it fading in California (see Southwestern Pacific Gale below). Swell NW Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. In the evening fetch rebuilt some at 35-45 kts from the south with seas 31 ft at 36.5S 150W aimed north. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator. Chance of showers. National Weather Service Medford, OR. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Daytime highs though will struggle to reach 60 by Tuesday and Wednesday; in fact, VC may see mid to upper 50s (max) Tuesday and Wednesday. Satellite Imagery Over the next 72 hours swell from two weather systems are to be in play (see Kuril Island Gale and Gulf Gale below). The main swells in the water are going to be an overlapping pair of Southern Hemisphere swells, with the new one showing bigger sets late. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Current Conditions This is not believable. View accurate wind, swell and tide forecasts for any GPS point. Subsurface Waters Temps In autumn and and early spring the Santa Ana wind brings weeks of offshore conditions. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. N wind 20 to 25 kteasing to 10 to 15 kt in the National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS56 KMFR Southeast Pacific Gale SYNOPSIS FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS. Kuril Island Gale On Thurs AM (2/24) fetch was fading from 30 kts from the west on the dateline with seas fading from 27 ft at 39N 173E aimed east. No cool anomalies were under the Pacific. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Surface Analysis I would still recommend giving it a look this morning with all the swell in the water. Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). 8 ft at 10 seconds. The longterm trend has been steadily downward. Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). SST Anomaly Projections Customize forecasts for any offshore location and save them for future use. waves 2 ft or less. N wind 10 to 15 ktbacking to NW 5 kt late in the Small North Gulf Gale Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. SB Harbor reported 57 this morning. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). Meteorological Overview Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. TODAY And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS56 KSEW 30- to 40-knot winds reached down to Antarctica, blowing over 2000 . During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Sunday the 7th, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Central South Pacific with 34 ft seas at 62S 166W aimed east-northeast. That swell will be showing the dominant energy for the majority of the breaks, but that WNW swell will still be hanging in there too. Swell fading Sun (2/27) from 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (8.0 ft). 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in Dribbles Thurs AM (5/4) fading from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. Size is expected to drop off a touch as both south swell and WNW swell slowly ease. Long Range Forecast Activity in the South and North Pacific look to die down a lot compared to our action-packed week of swell. Sea temperatures vary from north to south, though not by much, with a high and low peaks of 23-29C or 73-84F. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42.5N 151.25W aimed east. Sceaux-du-Gtinais Holiday Rentals & Homes - Centre-Val de Loire Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. Swell fading Sun (5/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1).
long range south pacific swell forecast
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